A pre-emptive exchange over Lebanon

On 25 August, before dawn, the Israeli air force struck targets across southern Lebanon in what the military described as a pre-emptive operation against an imminent large-scale attack by Hezbollah. Some hundred fighter jets took part, hitting what Israel said were thousands of rocket launchers positioned to fire at northern and central Israel.

The operation was timed to disrupt a launch that Israeli intelligence had expected within hours. The military said it struck hundreds of sites simultaneously, including launch barrels and drones, and that most of the launchers had been aimed at northern Israel, with a smaller number armed with longer-range rockets intended for targets near Tel Aviv. The strikes, which began before dawn and lasted for about an hour, were described by Israeli officials as among the largest in southern Lebanon since the start of the year. By mid-morning the raids were over, and the question turned to whether Hezbollah would still fire.

It did. Over the course of the day Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets and drones at northern Israel. Estimates from the Israeli side put the number at roughly 210 rockets and twenty drones, while Hezbollah itself said it had fired more than 320 Katyusha rockets in what it described as the first stage of retaliation. Israel said most of the rockets were intercepted by its air defences; some struck open ground, and a small number caused damage and injuries. Sirens sounded across the Galilee and in towns near the border, and residents were told to stay in shelters for several hours.

Both sides claimed success. Israel said the pre-emptive strikes had ‘thrown Hezbollah off balance’ and degraded its ability to fire on the scale Israel had feared, and that the operation had achieved its objective of preventing a larger attack on central Israel. Hezbollah said its barrage had caused ‘great disruptions’ inside Israel and had achieved its objectives, and that further stages of retaliation remained available if the group chose to use them.

That evening, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, gave a televised speech in which he maintained that the day’s attack had been a success and reserved the group’s right to strike again. He framed the exchange as a response to the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut earlier in the month, and warned that any future Israeli ground operation in Lebanon would meet a wider response.

The exchange was the most serious between the two sides since the outbreak of cross-border hostilities in October 2023, and it raised fears of a full escalation at a moment when ceasefire talks over Gaza were already underway. The United Nations and several Western governments issued calls for restraint during the day, warning that a wider war on Israel’s northern frontier would have consequences far beyond the immediate towns on both sides. By nightfall neither side had moved its ground forces further, and the day ended as it had begun: with both sides describing the same events as a victory. Whether the pause holds, or whether the next stage of retaliation that Hezbollah promised arrives, will determine whether 25 August is remembered as a single day of exchange or as the opening of something wider.