One year of Takaichi: defence first, and the support that fell away

A year after Takaichi Sanae became Japan’s first female prime minister, the anniversary is being marked less with celebration than with opinion polls. A Kyodo survey published on 18 October put cabinet support at 49.1 per cent, the first time it has fallen below half under her government; a Jiji Press survey this month had it lower still, at 42.4 per cent, after five consecutive months of decline. The approval wave that carried her into office in October 2025 has receded.

The policy record explains part of the divergence. Takaichi has governed where she always said she would. This year’s defence white paper, the first of her cabinet, carries what analysts in Beijing have called her unmistakable imprint: record defence spending, large orders of drones and other unmanned systems, satellite jamming and electromagnetic-warfare equipment, and a push into AI-assisted combat. She has kept the Abe-era security framework intact and pressed the constitutional-revision agenda that she has championed for years. In September she reshuffled her cabinet, keeping the core security team in place while bringing in new ministers.

The trouble is that defence was the easy part. On the domestic side, the record is thinner: a growth strategy has been announced, but prices and wages remain the issues that voters say decide their support, and the gains have been modest. The government has also been dragged down by its own ministers. The former agriculture minister was forced to answer for improper remarks and alleged breaches of election law. The education minister brought into September’s reshuffle is now facing his own scandal over party finances in Hyogo. By the middle of the month another minister was facing calls to resign, and parts of the Japanese press have asked how much longer the country must put up with what one headline called a ‘nightmare’.

The polls suggest the damage is structural, not just episodic. A Mainichi survey in July had already shown disapproval overtaking approval for the first time. Much of the remaining support is described by Japanese media as ‘passive’: voters who back the government mainly because no better alternative is visible. That is a comfortable cushion, and a fragile one.

Some perspective is worth keeping. A year is short for any government, and Takaichi’s security programme was always going to be the defining feature of her premiership, for better and worse. The ‘first’ that brought her to office has done its work; it no longer shelters her from the ordinary judgement that every prime minister faces. The question that the next year will answer is whether the defence-first agenda can coexist with the economic record voters actually reward. Japan’s first female prime minister has shown what she believes in. She has yet to show that it is enough.